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GDP developments

November 16, 2009 – 3:33 pm

growth and construction in chongqing
Okay, we just had a more serious post, but here is another one ;) I was thinking about the GDP development of China, so I played with the numbers. If China can sustain 8% growth per year, how will the numbers look in the near to mid term future? I did not take the population growth or inflation into account at all. 2008 numbers are taken from the CIA World Fact Book, which is a wonderful public domain resource (bookmark if you haven’t yet). Here we go….

Year – per capita GDP – total GDP in millions of $US
2008 $US 6,000 4,402,000
2009 $US 6,480 4,754,160
2010 $US 6,998 5,134,492
2011 $US 7,558 5,545,252
2012 $US 8,163 5,988,872
2013 $US 8,816 6,467,982
2014 $US 9,521 6,985,420
2015 $US 10,283 7,544,254
2016 $US 11,106 8,147,795
2017 $US 11,994 8,799,618
2018 $US 12,953 9,503,588
2019 $US 13,990 10,263,874
2020 $US 15,109 11,084,984
2025 $US 22,200 16,287,479
2030 $US 32,619 23,931,650

For comparison purposes 2008′s values for a number of countries sorted by per capita GDP.

country – per capita GDP – total GDP in millions of $US
Singapore $US 51,500 154,500
USA $US 46,900 14,260,000
Hong Kong $US 43,700 223,800
Germany $US 35,400 3,668,000
Japan $US 34,000 4,924,000
EU $US 33,700 18,140,000
Taiwan $US 31,100 401,600
Malaysia $US 15,200 214,700
China $US 6,000 4,402,000
India $US 2,900 1,237,000
Vietnam $US 2,800 90,880

What’s more?

  • The money in China is not equally distributed. Living standards in the coastal regions could reach western levels in 20 years.
  • Once the current recession is over, China could see a few years of 10%+ growth.
  • It’s obviously still worth learning Chinese.

My numbers are pretty simplified. I just took the 2008 numbers and then added 8% growth each year. Whatever your interpretation of these numbers is or whatever your conclusions are feel free to add a comment.

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  1. 4 Responses to “GDP developments”

  2. Well, first of all, I don’t think China can sustain an 8% growth. Actually, the country experienced a negative growth recently, just turned into positive numbers by an unpreceded stimulus package.

    What’s more is:
    the 6000 Dollars are measured in purchasing power partities. So one Dollar in China worthes more than one Dollar in Germany. They just measure the mere amount of, say, appartments you can buy – the quality of the goods doesn’t get into the calculation. Quality standards do not really have a negative impact of the satisfaction of people’s need, otherwhise they wouldn’t exist.
    Also, the CIA is not an independant organisation.

    I’d rather suggest you to use the numbers of the International Monetary Fund IMF:

    Here, we can see that the GDP per capita in real numbers is diffrent:

    China: USD 3,315.-
    USA: ~47,000
    Germany: ~44,700
    Singapore: ~39,000
    Switzerland: ~67,000

    By Aremonus on Nov 18, 2009

  3. Thakns for the comment Aremonus

    So that’s the difference between “nominal” and “purchasing power parity”.
    I’ll look into it and post an update at some point. Thanks for pointing it out.

    conclusion: I should get a job in Switzerland :o

    Can you recommend me an economics book that explains this and other economic things at a beginner’s level?

    By Hendrik on Nov 18, 2009

  4. if you are really patient, you might read an eco book.. but honestly, I don’t think it’s so efficient^^ I’ve learnt most of it by reading wikipedia :D It’s for free and much faster, as only the information I need to know come to my head.
    At HSG we’re yousing mankiw taylor.

    Why don’t you get a job at SAP or so? Then you could get a good job in Germany, in Switzerland but also in Chengdu, where they have their Asia HQ. If you’re a free SAP supporter, you could get high-paid jobs all around the world and only need to work as much as you want.

    By Aremonus on Nov 18, 2009

  5. Sounds reasonable. I’ll definitely send a job application to SAP :)

    By Hendrik on Nov 18, 2009

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