GDP developments
November 16, 2009 – 3:33 pm
Okay, we just had a more serious post, but here is another one 
I was thinking about the GDP development of China, so I played with the numbers. If China can sustain 8% growth per year, how will the numbers look in the near to mid term future? I did not take the population growth or inflation into account at all. 2008 numbers are taken from the CIA World Fact Book, which is a wonderful public domain resource (bookmark if you haven’t yet). Here we go….
| Year – | per capita GDP – | total GDP in millions of $US |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | $US 6,000 | 4,402,000 |
| 2009 | $US 6,480 | 4,754,160 |
| 2010 | $US 6,998 | 5,134,492 |
| 2011 | $US 7,558 | 5,545,252 |
| 2012 | $US 8,163 | 5,988,872 |
| 2013 | $US 8,816 | 6,467,982 |
| 2014 | $US 9,521 | 6,985,420 |
| 2015 | $US 10,283 | 7,544,254 |
| 2016 | $US 11,106 | 8,147,795 |
| 2017 | $US 11,994 | 8,799,618 |
| 2018 | $US 12,953 | 9,503,588 |
| 2019 | $US 13,990 | 10,263,874 |
| 2020 | $US 15,109 | 11,084,984 |
| 2025 | $US 22,200 | 16,287,479 |
| 2030 | $US 32,619 | 23,931,650 |
For comparison purposes 2008′s values for a number of countries sorted by per capita GDP.
| country – | per capita GDP – | total GDP in millions of $US |
|---|---|---|
| Singapore | $US 51,500 | 154,500 |
| USA | $US 46,900 | 14,260,000 |
| Hong Kong | $US 43,700 | 223,800 |
| Germany | $US 35,400 | 3,668,000 |
| Japan | $US 34,000 | 4,924,000 |
| EU | $US 33,700 | 18,140,000 |
| Taiwan | $US 31,100 | 401,600 |
| Malaysia | $US 15,200 | 214,700 |
| China | $US 6,000 | 4,402,000 |
| India | $US 2,900 | 1,237,000 |
| Vietnam | $US 2,800 | 90,880 |
What’s more?
- The money in China is not equally distributed. Living standards in the coastal regions could reach western levels in 20 years.
- Once the current recession is over, China could see a few years of 10%+ growth.
- It’s obviously still worth learning Chinese.
My numbers are pretty simplified. I just took the 2008 numbers and then added 8% growth each year. Whatever your interpretation of these numbers is or whatever your conclusions are feel free to add a comment.
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4 Responses to “GDP developments”
Well, first of all, I don’t think China can sustain an 8% growth. Actually, the country experienced a negative growth recently, just turned into positive numbers by an unpreceded stimulus package.
What’s more is:
the 6000 Dollars are measured in purchasing power partities. So one Dollar in China worthes more than one Dollar in Germany. They just measure the mere amount of, say, appartments you can buy – the quality of the goods doesn’t get into the calculation. Quality standards do not really have a negative impact of the satisfaction of people’s need, otherwhise they wouldn’t exist.
Also, the CIA is not an independant organisation.
I’d rather suggest you to use the numbers of the International Monetary Fund IMF:
Here, we can see that the GDP per capita in real numbers is diffrent:
China: USD 3,315.-
USA: ~47,000
Germany: ~44,700
Singapore: ~39,000
Switzerland: ~67,000
By Aremonus on Nov 18, 2009
Thakns for the comment Aremonus
So that’s the difference between “nominal” and “purchasing power parity”.
I’ll look into it and post an update at some point. Thanks for pointing it out.
conclusion: I should get a job in Switzerland
Can you recommend me an economics book that explains this and other economic things at a beginner’s level?
By Hendrik on Nov 18, 2009
if you are really patient, you might read an eco book.. but honestly, I don’t think it’s so efficient^^ I’ve learnt most of it by reading wikipedia
It’s for free and much faster, as only the information I need to know come to my head.
At HSG we’re yousing mankiw taylor.
Why don’t you get a job at SAP or so? Then you could get a good job in Germany, in Switzerland but also in Chengdu, where they have their Asia HQ. If you’re a free SAP supporter, you could get high-paid jobs all around the world and only need to work as much as you want.
By Aremonus on Nov 18, 2009
Sounds reasonable. I’ll definitely send a job application to SAP
By Hendrik on Nov 18, 2009